US EV Market Share Has Surpassed the 5% Tipping Point

Global EV sales increased by 60% to reach 10.3 million in 2022, up from 6.5 million in 2021. China continued to lead in sales, as 6 million EVs were sold in the country. Meanwhile, Europe and the US tracked behind, logging sales of 2.6 million and 800,000 EVs, respectively. 

Despite a global downward trend in vehicle sales, the e-mobility market is rapidly expanding. In 2022, global EV sales reached 10.3 million, an increase of over 60% from the previous year, according to Bloomberg NEF. EV sales made up 10% of all new cars sold globally, with most of the sales occurring in Europe and China. Meanwhile, the EV charging infrastructure market is expected to grow to USD 23.4 billion by 2028 with a steady 15% CAGR. 

EV sales share in the United States 

Like in most parts of the world, total new vehicle sales in the US fell by 8% in 2022, but EV sales grew by a staggering 65%, as per the latest data from Kelley Blue Book. EV sales share in the US hit 5.8% in 2022, up from 3.2% in 2021, with total EV sales surpassing 800 000 for the first time. This is an important milestone, as many experts believe the EV adoption rate will be slow and sporadic until it reaches 5%. As stated by BloombergNEF, the 5% tipping point for electric vehicle adoption is based on observations of other markets, such as China and Europe. These markets saw a three to four-times acceleration in EV adoption after surpassing the 5% threshold. 

The growth of the EV market is expected to continue in 2023. Cox Automotive, the parent company of Kelley Blue Book, forecasts that EV sales in the US will reach 1 million for the first time, driven by new government incentives and the launch of new EV products. With this increase, the share of EVs in the US market is expected to rise further. 

How many EVs are on the roads in the United States

Despite the increase in EV sales, EVs still account for less than 1% of all vehicles in the US. The country has over 284 million light-duty vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks), which includes an estimated 2.8 million EVs. Therefore, EVs only make up 0.99% of the entire US vehicle fleet. 

Average EV price in the United States 

By the end of 2022, the average price of a new EV sold was USD 61 448, which marked a considerable reduction of 5.5% from November's average EV transaction price of USD 65 042. However, when compared to December 2021, the decrease in the average price paid for a new EV was only 0.6%.  

The downward trend continued until February 2023. The average new EV sold for USD 58 385, 1.8% less than the month before.  

Tesla's significant price cuts were the driving force behind the drop in pricing, as the company holds around two-thirds of the US EV market. Tesla's average transaction prices fell by USD 977, representing a 1.6% decrease from January 2023 and a 5.9% decrease from February 2022. The lower prices likely contributed to higher sales volumes for Tesla, with estimates from Kelley Blue Book indicating a year-over-year sales increase of over 44% in February.  

Despite the decline in price, the EV price point is still above the average price of cars in general (USD 42 269) but lower than the average price of a luxury car which stood at USD 65 534 in February 2023.  

If the sales can keep its upward momentum, US EV sales will surpass the 1 million mark in 2023. But the sales will be dominated by expensive vehicles as the selection of affordable EVs won’t dramatically increase this year.  

Tesla's market share declined in 2022

Tesla's market share is reduced to 65% in 2022, from 72% in 2021, according to Kelley Blue Book’s 2022 EV Sales Report. Still, the company remained the uncontested leader of the US EV market although Tesla's position is now being challenged by the arrival of other options that offer comparable or superior technology. 

Ford Motor emerged as the second-largest player, accounting for 7.6% of the market, followed closely by Hyundai and its affiliate, Kia, at 6.8%. BMW saw a sharp 945% increase in sales. Previously criticized for falling behind in the electrification of its lineup, the German automaker launched three models in 2022, the BMW i4 sporty, the BMW iX crossover, and BMW i7 large sedan, racking up over 15 000 BEV sales in the US, or about 1.9% share of the total EVs sold in 2022.  

General Motors Co. slipped in the market after it halted sales of its top-selling electric, the Chevrolet Bolt, but sales have since rebounded. Volkswagen and Nissan Motor also saw a decline in their EV market shares though they contributed a very small percentage to the market to begin with. As the EV market remains a small slice of the broader car market, automakers are targeting it as a major growth opportunity, with companies able to roll out attractive EVs having the chance to attract early adopters. 

Source: Kelley Blue Book 

California leading the US EV revolution 

Known as a state with a great emphasis on environmental issues, California is paving the way for the future of electric vehicles in the United States. In 2022, EVs made up 18.8% of all new cars sold in California, which is almost one in every five cars sold. In comparison, EV sales were 5.8% of all U.S. car sales in 2022. 

EV sales are up 38% from 2021 and 138% from 2020. Nearly 350 000 EVs were sold last year in California, representing approximately 40% of all EV sales in the US. As of now, there are approximately 1.4 million cumulative EVs in California, accounting for 50% of all EVs in the US. 

A new groundbreaking regulation approved in August 2022 will force Californian car owners to switch from ICE to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). This regulation mandates 35% of vehicle sales to be zero-emission in 2026, increasing to 100% in 2035.  
 
Plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) can be used to meet compliance obligations but are capped at 20% of ZEV sales and must have a minimum all-electric range of 30 miles in 2026, increasing to 50 miles in 2029. Other essential components of this proposed regulation are vehicle durability and battery warranty requirements that will give more assurance to those who have doubts about EVs. 

As other states plan to adopt similar regulations, the influence of California's mandate will likely expand beyond state lines and influence around 30%-40% of the US market. 

Following California, the states with the largest market share for EV sales are the District of Columbia (13.4%), Washington (11.1%), Oregon (10.4%), and Nevada (9.4%). 16 states had new EV registrations of less than 3%. 

How many EV chargers are there in the United States? 

Approximately 80% of electric vehicle charging takes place at home, but access to the reliable and convenient workplace and public charging stations is crucial in supporting EV customers. Currently, there are roughly 132 000 EV charging ports available in over 51 000 stations across the country.  

Source: Statzon/ Gen Consulting Company 

Source: Statzon/ Gen Consulting Company 

Most of the charging ports available are Level 2 chargers, which account for 77% of all public charging ports in the US. DC fast chargers make up around 22%, with the majority (60%) of these fast chargers on the Tesla network and, therefore, only accessible to Tesla drivers.  

There are currently more than 18 000 Tesla Superchargers in the US that can add about 200 miles of range to a Tesla vehicle in 15 minutes. Tesla already provides converters for non-Tesla electric cars to use their Superchargers in Europe and is also planning to bring this feature to the US. 

Level 1 chargers can still be found in some public charging facilities. However, they are not very common and make up less than 1% of all charging points. 

Nearly one-third of the nation's public charging infrastructures are in California. The state has the largest number of EV charger points by volume (38 000), far outpacing the rest of the country. New York, ranked second, has less than one-fourth the number of EV chargers as California. However, when the size of the state is accounted for, Vermont emerges as the winner. A much smaller state compared to California, which also has a significant focus on environmentalism, the state has the highest number of EV charging ports per person, with 140 EV chargers per 100,000 residents, followed by California (105) and Massachusetts (71). 

Charging infrastructures outside urban areas is not getting enough attention currently. Although EV adoption is slow in these areas, it's still important to have enough charging stations there. Currently, 85% of Level 3 (fast) chargers and 89% of Level 2 (regular) chargers are located within US Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), areas with a high density of population. The same can be said about the Tesla charging network. 82% of its Superchargers (fast) and 83% of its destination chargers (regular) are located within MSAs.  

Does the United States have enough EV chargers? 

US EV market share for new vehicles is likely to reach 30% or more by 2030, at which point the total number of EVs in operation could reach 26.4 million. The Edison Institute came up with these numbers by aggregating many other forecasts from different organizations (e.g.: Deloitte, Boston Consulting Group, Guidehouse, Wood Mackenzie). 

Approximately 12.9 million charging ports will be needed to support the 26 million EVs projected to be on US roads in 2030. This would be a mix between home charging, workplace charging, and public facilities with a composition of 74% (9.5 million ports) home and multifamily Level 2 charging, 9% (1.2 million ports) workplace level 2 charging, 16% (2 million ports) public level 2 charging, and 1% (140 000 ports) public DC fast charging as reported by S&P Global Mobility.  

While DC fast charging ports make up only 1% of the EV charging infrastructure needed in 2030, these charging stations are vital and should become a top priority for policymakers, third-party charging providers, and electric companies. However, they are also much more costly than lower-powered Level 2 stations, often costing hundreds of thousands of dollars per station.  

Top EV charging companies in the United States 

Combining the number of charger ports and locations across all levels of EV chargers, ChargePoint ranks well above all other networks and is easily the largest EV charging network in the US, accounting for 39% of all US public charging ports. Currently, ChargePoint is managing over 52 000 charging ports spread across 28 000 locations in the US.  

 Source: AFDC 

Tesla is in the number two spot for the overall charging network, but it dominates the DC fast charging market. Tesla Supercharger is currently available to Tesla drivers only, yet Tesla has the highest number of EV sales compared to other automakers, therefore, the network caters to a big proportion of EVs on the road.  

Tesla Supercharger network is known for having the fastest and smoothest charging experience. With 18 000 superchargers spread over 1700 locations, Supercharger accounts for 61.7% of total DC fast charger ports in the US.  

Source: AFDC 

Taking into account both regular charging, also known as Destination charging, and the Supercharger network, Tesla charging network has a share of 21% of all charging points available in the US, with ownership of 28,000 charging ports spread over 5,800 different locations.  

Following Tesla is SemaConnect with a 4.9% share, Blink with 3.1%, Electrify America with 2.9%, and EV connect with 2.1%. The rest 13.4% of the market is distributed to many other smaller operators, and another 13.2% is in "Non-networked" category. 

In the fast charging segment, Electrify America is in second place with a 12.3% share, EVgo is in third place with 8.2%, ChargePoint came fourth with 6.5%, and Francis is in fifth place with a 1.8% share. Around 1000 ports (3.3% share) belong to the "Non-networked" category, and another 6% of the share goes to many other networks. 

Source: Statzon, Kelley Blue Book (1), Kelley Blue Book (2), Kelley Blue Book (3), WSJ, AFDC (1), AFDC (2), Alliance for Automotive Innovation, Copilot, SP Global Mobility, CA.gov, EVAdoption, EEI