Automotive Industry 2024: Market Trends, Forecasts, and Manufacturer Insights

Current State of the Global Automotive Market: Key Trends and Statistics

The global automotive industry is navigating a complex landscape characterized by both challenges and opportunities. As we move through 2024, several key trends are shaping the industry:

• Electrification Acceleration
  • The industry continues to witness a significant shift towards electrification. In 2023, battery electric vehicle (BEV) sales across 20 analyzed markets reached 9.97 million units, with global sales likely exceeding 10 million. This represents a 28% growth in BEV sales, significantly outpacing the 5% growth in internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales
  • The recent industry review by Statzon, based on annual and quarterly reports, other communications, and comments from car manufacturers, also indicated that the adoption of electric vehicle (EV) is growing. Many manufacturers report increased sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and hybrid models. However, the pace of adoption varies by region, with some markets showing signs of slower growth due to factors such as changing incentives and consumer preferences.

• Market Recovery with Regional Variations
  • The global automotive market is showing signs of recovery, with slight growth in overall demand. However, this recovery is not uniform across all regions. For example, BEV sales growth in the United States was very strong at 54% in 2023, while China's growth rate slowed to 24%.
  • Also, the Statzon study indicated that this recovery is not uniform across all regions. While some markets, such as North America and parts of Europe, are experiencing growth, others, like China, are facing challenges with consumer confidence and increased competition.
    
    
• Supply Chain Stabilization
  • After years of disruptions, supply chains are showing signs of stabilization. However, the KPMG report indicates that executives are still concerned about the continuity of supply for many commodities and components over the next five years.
    
    
• Intensifying Competition
  • With production constraints easing, competition in the automotive sector has intensified. This is particularly evident in the EV segment, where traditional automakers compete with new entrants and tech companies.
    
    
• Technology Integration
  • There's an increasing focus on software-defined vehicles, digital experiences, and advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). The KPMG survey reveals that artificial intelligence (AI) has jumped to first place as the most important skill for the industry in the coming years.
    
    
• Continued SUV Dominance
  • According to the Statzon industry review, Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) continue to be a dominant force in the market, with many manufacturers reporting strong sales in this segment.

Automotive Market Forecast 2024-2030: Growth Projections and Emerging Trends

Looking ahead, the automotive industry is poised for significant transformation while e-mobility is growing:

Accelerated EV Transition

According to the IEA, BEVs' market share of total car sales is projected to reach 48% by 2030. However, the KPMG survey indicates that executives are less optimistic about when EVs will reach cost parity with conventional cars, with only 66% expecting parity by 2030.

Most manufacturers are committing to ambitious EV targets, with expectations of continued growth in this segment. There's a focus on developing more affordable EV models and improving charging infrastructure as indicated by Statzons research

According to the Electric Vehicle Market Forecast to 2030 report from Market Research Future, the global electric vehicle (EV) market is experiencing rapid growth. It is projected to reach 33.7 million units by 2030, with a CAGR of 18.6% from 2022 to 2030. Driving factors include rising fuel prices, government initiatives, and expansion into emerging markets. However, high EV prices and underdeveloped aftermarket services pose challenges.

Investing in Future Technologies

Significant investments are being made in areas such as autonomous driving, connected car technologies, and new EV platforms. The PwC report projects that by 2040, zero-emission vehicles will make up close to 100% of vehicle sales in Europe.

Sustainability Focus

Beyond EVs, there's a broader emphasis on sustainability across the entire value chain. A PwC Strategy& study estimates that by 2030, the total cost of vehicle ownership in Europe will be reduced by €330 billion, while carbon dioxide emissions will be cut by more than 1 billion tonnes.

Evolving Business Models

Many automakers are exploring new revenue streams, including software services and subscriptions. However, the KPMG survey shows that executives are less confident than before about consumers' willingness to pay for these services.

Supply Chain Resilience

Companies are working to create more resilient and localized supply chains, particularly for EV components. The KPMG report notes that OEMs are reaching deeper into the supply chain, investing in lithium producers and forming partnerships to ensure supply.

Automotive Industry Analysis: Manufacturer Strategies and Market Positioning

A recent Statzon study on car manufacturers' views provides valuable insights into how major players are positioning themselves in the evolving market:

• Volkswagen: Expects slight growth in deliveries and is focusing on developing more affordable EVs to capture a larger market share.
• Ford: Emphasizing EV development, particularly in the commercial vehicle segment, while also maintaining a diverse powertrain portfolio to address varying market needs.
• Tesla anticipates lower growth rates than in previous years but continues to focus on expanding production capacity and developing new, more affordable models to maintain its market leadership.
• BYD: Expects continued strong growth in the new energy vehicle market, particularly in China, and is focusing on international expansion to diversify its market presence.
• Toyota: Maintaining a cautious outlook with expectations of slight market growth, while continuing to invest in hybrid and EV technologies to meet diverse consumer demands.
• Mercedes-Benz: Focusing on the luxury EV segment and expecting a slight decrease in profitability due to market pressures, but confident in its premium positioning.
• BMW: Projecting slight growth driven by new model launches and increased EV sales, while investing heavily in next-generation EV platforms to secure future competitiveness.
• General Motors: Focusing on transitioning to an all-electric future while managing the decline of ICE vehicle sales, indicating a strategic shift in its product lineup.
• Nissan: Revising down sales forecasts slightly but continuing to push for increased electrification, particularly in markets like Europe, to align with regulatory trends.
• Hyundai: Seeing strong growth in eco-friendly vehicle sales and maintaining a focus on SUVs, while facing challenges in some regional markets, highlighting the importance of a diversified product strategy.

Conclusion: The Future of the Automotive Industry

The automotive industry stands at a pivotal point, facing both significant challenges and unprecedented opportunities. While the industry faces challenges such as reaching cost parity for EVs and developing charging infrastructure, it also stands on the brink of transformative changes. The coming years will likely see a continued acceleration of electrification, increased technology integration, and reshaping traditional business models in the automotive sector.

For stakeholders in the automotive sector, staying informed about these trends and manufacturer strategies will be crucial for making informed decisions and identifying opportunities in this rapidly evolving industry.

Sources: Global - Electric Vehicle Market Market Forecast to 2030 - Market Research Future, IEA data in Statzon, Global - Electric Vehicle Sales Review Q4 2023 - PWC, KPMG 24th Annual Global Automotive Executive Survey. Getting Real About the EV Transition, Investor materials accessed on October 2nd, 2024 from: Volkswagen AG, Ford Motor Company, Toyota Motor Corporation, Tesla, Inc., BYD Company Limited, Mitsubishi Motors Corporation, Mercedes-Benz Group AG, General Motors, Nissan Motor Corporation Ltd, BMW AG, Hyundai Motors Company